Are Coin Flips Working Correctly?
Hey all,
I have been running a deck that flips a lot of coins. But I feel like it is not 50/50 at the moment. Noticed it last night in particular when I was 0-6 on Cyllene in a tournament match.
Then I saw a prominent YouTuber mention it.
So started saving game logs today and noticed that only 10 out of 29 coin flips were heads.
So I have two questions:
1. Anyone else noticing this?
2. How big of a sample size do I need to collect to see if it's an issue? 100? 1,000?
Thanks
Comments
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- I haven't noticed it, but getting 10 out of 29 is pretty unlucky. About 4% chance.
- The more, the better.
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It is possible there could be a bug. But equally humans do not have an appreciation for true randomness. In a truly random system, a coin could land on heads 500 times out of 500 tosses. Ironically this leads to games implementing non-random systems to average out results and "feel" more random to human players.
Every card game's digital client has people complain about this issue at some point, be it the card shuffler algorithm, coin tosses, dice rolls... any simulation of randomness. The results come out against the player a seemingly unfair amount of times, and people start complaining about bugs and rigged opening hands.
Again, there could be a bug. Or you just had a run of bad luck with a random system. Your sample size is too small to tell.
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Update: Currently 16 heads out of 47.
Wugtrio I am giving up on you.
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Respectfully, the inconsistency of relying on coin flips is why people don't usually run decks that rely on flipping coins. It's fun when the rng cooperates, but when it gets bad it usually gets really bad. it's also why you hardly ever see cyllene in decklists - the risk of wasting your supporter for the turn on a double tails flip is a lot to justify.
i've had rough luck with coin flips before but, at the very least, it does sometimes land on heads,
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After playing a Wugtrio Mill deck alot it seems like the coin flip is about 30% Heads and 70% Tails.
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Sometimes I lose a lot of coin flips, but I don't play decks that rely on them, so I'm not that informed on coin flip rates.
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