Do you think Pocket is just going to see a dip?
I hope that they don't take much advice from the trading card game devs. We can see they are open to bad ideas. Not infallible. But would being infallible be better than being eternal? Thoughts.
Answers
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All free-to-play game will stagnate eventually. But in this case, I don't think TCG Pocket will lose steam any time soon. You can't scalp cards from this game nearly as easily as you can with the physical product. Plus, you can get two free card packs per day. Compared to how much money you'd have to spend on the physical TCG (or TCG Live), it's more appealing for some people to just collect cards in TCG Pocket.
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It is natural for games to see a decline in their playerbase over time. When the app first launches, it is novel and an unknown quantity. People do not know whether or not the game is for them yet, so more are willing to try it out.
As time goes on, some of those who try it and do not like it will simply quit and delete the app. The remaining players will be those to whom the game appeals, and given the popularity of Pokémon and the physical trading card game, that is still a substantial number.
But as the app ages, some people will get bored of all that it has to offer. Some will be drawn to newer apps. Some will get frustrated with the collection loop or the competitive gameplay. Others still will become upset with the Pokémon brand in general for reasons unrelated to the app, be it the main series games, the anime, Game Freak or Nintendo's business practices, and similarly drop the app.
And it gradually becomes harder to attract newer players. Over time, most potentially interested in it will have already tried it and concluded it is not for them. And it will be easier for future potential players to find information about the app and decide whether or not it is for them without ever having downloaded it.
Furthermore, by its nature as a card game, like all other card games, the card pool will grow, the meta will become more complicated, the number of products you have to buy to build a competitive deck increases and building a complete collection becomes all the more daunting with each set release. This will also scare off potential new players.
In short, every online game dies eventually. New content postpones this, but eventually this too becomes unsustainable. Every Pokémon has a card, rare alternate arts, exs, GXs, VMaxes, etc. It becomes almost impossible to innovate without leaning on increasingly bizarre and obtuse gimmicks, and the cost of developing new sets becomes unjustified given the remaining player base and the revenue it generates.
And the decision will be made to pull the plug. All the time and money you invested in the app will evaporate and become worthless. This fact is another thing that wards away potential new players of collection apps and digital collectable card games.
Even with the best, most competent and well intentioned development team in the world, this game will eventually become unsustainable and shut down. It is not a question of "if", but "when".
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